比尔盖茨谈《未来之路》25年后：做出的正确和错误的预测(2)

Next February， I’ll release another book， this one about climate change。 Before it hits the shelves， I thought it would be fun to look back at The Road Ahead and see how things turned out。
明年二月，我将发行另一本书，主题是气候变化。在书上架之前，我觉得回顾一下《未来之路》并看看我预测的结果如何会很有意思。
As I wrote in The Road Ahead， we tend to overestimate the changes that will happen in the short term and underestimate the ones that will happen over the long term。 That is certainly my experience with the book itself。 I was too optimistic about some things， but other things happened even faster or more dramatically than I imagined。
正如我在《未来之路》中所写，我们倾向于高估短期内将要发生的变化，而低估长期内将要发生的变化。这无疑是我从这本书中得到的经验。我对一些事情过于乐观，而另一些事情又比我想象中发生得更快或更激烈。
These days， it’s easy to forget just how much the Internet has transformed society。 When The Road Ahead came out， people were still navigating with paper maps。 They listened to music on CDs。 Photos were developed in labs。 If you needed a gift idea， you asked a friend （in person or over the phone）。 Today you can do every one of these things much more easily—and in most cases at a much lower cost too—using digital tools。