如何寻找超级成长股？世界首富24封股东信“吐露天机”：现金流比利润更重要(20)

九、2005:不能用可见的短期利益来衡量长期利益
我们有些重要的决定可以通过数字分析来做出，哪一个是正确答案哪一个是错误答案，哪一个是更好的答案，哪一个是更糟的答案，这是我们喜欢的决策方式。
Many of the important decisions we make at Amazon.com can be made with data。 There is a right answer or a wrong answer， a better answer or a worse answer， and math tells us which is which。 These are our favorite kinds of decisions。
就像你可以预期的，不是所有的重要决定都通过数字分析的方式做出。有时我们需要在少许、甚至没有数据的情况下做判断。尽管数字、分析和数理起到重要作用，但这些决定更有赖于判断力。
As you would expect， however， not all of our important decisions can be made in this enviable， math-based way。 Sometimes we have little or no historical data to guide us and proactive experimentation is impossible， impractical， or tantamount to a decision to proceed。 Though data， analysis， and math play a role， the prime ingredient in these decisions is judgment。
就像我们股东所知道的，我们在效率和规模允许的前提下年复一年将持续地为顾客降低价格，这就是一个不能用数学方式来分析的重要决定。实际上，数学分析上看并不支持降价策略，从算法上看，聪明的做法是提价，我们的收入与价格弹性直接相关。通过精确计算，我们可以预测某一百分比的降价会在一定程度上带来销量的增加。几乎没有例外，短期销量的上升无法弥补价格下降带来的损失。
As our shareholders know， we have made a decision to continuously and significantly lower prices for customers year after year as our efficiency and scale make it possible。 This is an example of a very important decision that cannot be made in a math-based way。 In fact， when we lower prices， we go against the math that we can do， which always says that the smart move is to raise prices。